By BIKETI KIKECHI Political Editor
Church leaders and some politicians led by Eldoret North MP William Ruto have kicked off the 'No' campaign in earnest.
Ruto, Special Programmes Minister Naomi Shaban and a group of MPs from Rift Valley have braced themselves for battle with heavyweights President Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga.
Leaders in districts like Mt Elgon, Kuria and some areas in Rift Valley Province have made it clear they will oppose the Proposed Constitution.
Unlike in 2005, observers say the referendum on constitution change to be held in August will most likely pass.
Those who will reject the draft will therefore end up living with it, unlike the last referendum when Kenyans reverted to the current Constitution because the 'No' side won.
"That is what happens when a constitution is decided by a referendum and nothing can be done about it," said former Constitution of Kenya Review Commission Chairman Yash Pal Ghai.
Efforts for a consensus for Kenyans to vote for a non-contested or Yes-Yes referendum collapsed on Thursday.
Those campaigning against the draft cannot be ignored because they represent regional interests and a large constituency of the mainstream churches.
From Ghai's view, some 'No' proponents may be presenting facts to suit their own interests, but he agrees some people may be influenced to reject the proposed law.
But what happens if the document is passed in its current form and those leaders and regions continue to object to the perceived shortcomings and also fail to marshal enough support to force amendments to the new constitution?
As far back as 1999, constitutional lawyer Kenneth Kiplagat argued such challenges could force some communities to seek the Quebec Option, which could lead to the break up of the State.
Quebec is one of the provinces of Canada that is largely occupied by French-speaking people who originated mainly from France.
Other options
Twice, the people of Quebec had by way of referendum sought to pass a resolution that said they were going to decide for themselves their relationship with the rest of Canada.
Every time Quebec holds a referendum, it has failed by one percentage point (49 per cent to 51 per cent), but should it pass, then the Canadian constitution will not apply in Quebec.
Dr Kiplagat, who appeared before the Parliamentary Select Committee chaired by Raila in 1999, suggested to the PSC the best way to write a constitution is to allow periphery interests to caucus on their own, create their own draft constitutions and allow them to send representatives to a national forum to negotiate their interests.
In bringing up the Quebec option, he gave the example of Coast Province, where residents feel the constitution does not capture their interests.
That notwithstanding, some lawyers told The Standard on Sunday it will be difficult for one community to seek secession.
Nairobi based lawyer Hassan Lakicha also dismissed chances of the document being taken back to Parliament for amendments. "The window for amendments is already closed and it will be a setback for the country if that happened," he said.
The winning side in the referendum is expected to garner 50+1 per cent votes although Lakicha does not see a scenario where the plebiscite will get less than 70 per cent 'Yes' vote.
To get a proper picture of how the referendum can polarise the country, it is important to look at how the country voted last time.
In 2005, central Kenya constituencies heavily supported the 'Yes' vote. President Kibaki's Othaya constituency registered the highest voter turn out of 70 per cent. In Maragwa, out of the 55,016 registered voters, 32,706 voted for the draft while 946 voted against with 279 spoilt votes recorded.
It was almost the same story in Mathioya where out of 48,347 registered voters, only 756 voted against the draft.
In Environment Minister John Michuki's Kangema, out of 41,808 voters, 24,394 voted for the draft while 839 were opposed.
In general, the so-called Wako Draft was widely accepted by those who voted for 'Banana' in the 2005 referendum in Central and parts of Eastern Province.
Should the referendum have passed, the people of Central could have embraced the document despite misgivings that were expressed in other parts of the country.
That could have been the complete opposite in other parts of the country like Jebii Kilimo's Marakwet East where 95 per cent voted against the draft.
Other areas that registered over 90 per cent opposition included Baringo North, while Bureti and regions around Kericho recorded over 70 per cent rejection.
High voter turn-out
A close look at the last referendum indicates that the South and Central Rift constituencies experienced a high voter turn out. North Eastern and Western provinces recorded the lowest voter turn out of less than 50 per cent in almost all constituencies.
The premise that the 'Yes' vote will win is borne out of the fact that Kibaki and Raila are this time reading from the same script.
The two principals are vigorously campaigning for the Proposed Constitution as they visit different parts of the country.
Kibaki said: "I'm sure Kenyans will get a new constitution soon after the referendum. I urge you all to support the document."
But politicians with a fairly large appeal like Ruto and Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta are still calling for a non-contested referendum for the country to overwhelmingly embrace the new constitution.
Source: The Standard | Online Edition
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