The game of brinkmanship ahead of southern Sudan's January referendum continued on Wednesday after a regional leaders meeting failed to clinch a definitive deal on the terms under which the vote will take place.
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But the communiqué issued at the end of the talks illustrated how much ground remains to be covered before the historic vote, which is expected to see Southern Sudanese vote to separate from their Northern counterparts.
The leadership in the North and the South remain divided on a number of issues, including border demarcation, oil revenue sharing, citizen rights in the post-referendum period and the status of the contentious Abyei region.
After two days of talks in the Ethiopian capital, there was little sign of a breakthrough.
The final statement only "reiterated" Igad member states' support for the peace process, "commended" the various teams working to resolve the stalemate and "welcomed the dedication of the parties to resolve the outstanding issues in particular Abyei and called upon the parties to approach the next round of negotiations with a spirit of compromise cognisant of the need to guarantee the rights and livelihoods of the affected people."
International Crisis Group analyst Fouad Hikmat told the Sunday Nation the reluctance of the Khartoum administration to make deep concessions is understandable.
He says the Northern leadership perceives that it might be easier to extract concessions from the South and Western states such as the US before the referendum, but wants to wait until the last minute.
"They have to think about the domestic audience. They know that they will be accused of a historic failure in the event of secession and want to make the process seem as difficult as possible in a way that helps them save face at home."
A return to war
Mr Hikmat says all indications are that neither party wants a return to war, but it is likely that any framework agreement on post-referendum issues will be clinched closer to January 9.
The referendum on self-determination is part of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement signed five years ago to end one of Africa's longest running civil wars.
Southerners are expected to overwhelmingly vote to secede, a development which could lead to the creation of Africa's newest state but might also trigger a new war in the region, if the North declines to accept the results of the poll.
International mediation efforts are currently geared towards stopping the two traditional rivals from returning to war.
The fears of the consequences of a fresh conflict were put in sharp relief last week following the release of a study which estimates a new conflict would cost the country, the region and international community more than $100 billion.
Aegis Trust, an NGO, and three research centres, including the Institute for Security Studies based in South Africa, drew up four post-referendum scenarios, ranging from peace to a resumption of full-scale war between north and south Sudan.
In the case of a 10-year conflict of medium intensity, the losses for Sudan would amount to at least $52.1 billion, on top of about $29 billion for Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda.
The impact on the international community would top $30 billion in terms of peacekeeping missions and humanitarian aid.
"This report demonstrates the high cost of conflict. It implies that domestic, regional and international parties should be asking:
'Are we doing enough to avoid a war that might cost over 100 billion dollars and ruin countless lives?'" said Matthew Bell of London-based Frontier Economics.
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Source: Breaking News, Kenya
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