By Beauttah Omanga
The South Mugirango by-election could be a contest that will heavily impact on national politics.
Apart from its effect on former MP Omingo Magara's political career, the by-election will show how much influence Prime Minister Raila Odinga has on the politics of Kisii.
Mr Magara, formerly ODM National Treasurer, is credited for countering and diminishing the influence of former Cabinet Minister Simeon Nyachae in Kisii in the 2007 campaigns.
"Magara will emerge a hero and will have a massive wave in Kisii against anybody that Raila will be fielding anywhere in future. That is why it is a matter of life and death to him," said political analyst Ibrahim Omar.
Mr Omar added: "To Magara, a loss will send him to the political dustbin."
The Abagusii community means a lot to Raila's 2012 voting blocs, and it is clear he has to do more than just talk.
It was Magara and long-time Odinga family ally Chris Bichage who single-handedly braved the Nyachae influence to introduce Raila's presidential bid to the Kisii community and rallied other Kisii leaders behind him.
Mixed reception
"I sacrificed a lot for Raila to a point that he was a man to beat in Kisii. Instead of him standing by me, he allowed himself to be misled by latecomers," said Magara.
As Raila campaigns in Kisii in the next few days, he will face mixed reception and will have a lot of explanation to do after the impression was created that he had frustrated more than one Kisii politician.
His bid to force Education Minister Sam Ongeri to step aside over fraud allegations in the Free Primary Education programme was translated by some to mean an attempt to liquidate strong Kisii politicians ahead of 2012.
Prof Ongeri has visited South Mugirango twice since then and declared war against the PM through the by-election.
Even though Ongeri is one of the leading Kanu officials, he has had the backing of Kanu national Chairman Uhuru Kenyatta and Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka to throw their weight behind Magara.
They are likely to use the tarmacking of the Rongo-Etago-Ogembo road, which Raila and President Kibaki promised to make their point of unfulfilled promises.
There are some who also feel that Raila has failed to reward those who stood by him for many years, among them Mr Bichage.
ODM could also be disadvantaged, given that one of its deputy party leaders, Higher Education Minister William Ruto, is expected to campaign for Magara.
To counter this, the party intends to assign at least two other national officials to accompany Ibrahim Ochoi, who is the party's candidate, on his daily campaigns starting next week.
Common ideology
Deputy Party leader Musalia Mudavadi is likely to lead the ODM campaigns in South Mugirango.
"The high number of aspirants who sought our party's ticket was a confirmation that ODM is the party to beat and it has a bright future," said Mr Mudavadi.
"Ongeri is supporting Magara not because he likes Magara so much, but wants to use that as an opportunity to teach Raila a lesson that the Kisii community has its leaders who can influence things," said an MP from Kisii on condition of anonymity.
The position was echoed by Assistant Minister Wilfred Ombui who has also declared "total war against outsiders" in the Kisii politics. "Somebody has underrated the Kisii community for far too long and it is time we proved through the by-election that we can take a position as a community and that we are worth respecting," said Ombui.
Sources said Ongeri and Ombui would be the Gusii politicians to be used to deliver the seat with Ombui appointed because of his long time association with teachers in the entire region.
show solidarity
Before he was elected MP, Ombui was influential in the Gusii Mwalimu Sacco where almost all teachers in Kisii were members.
A strong signal was sent by Kalonzo that he would be fully behind Magara when he dispatched Kangundo MP Johnstone Muthama to escort Magara as he presented his nomination papers.
Speaking at Nyamarambe soon after, Muthama said: "We are here to show solidarity that Magara is our man and you the people of South Mugirango should give him another chance."
However, ODM will not be sitting back to let Magara recapture his seat on a silver plate. An elaborate campaign strategy has been devised to ensure their party retains the seat through Ibrahim Ochoi.
Ochoi commands a lot of respect among the elderly who have been accusing Magara of being aloof to their desire to meet him. "Ochoi will easily get the elders' blessings because given his age, he comes out as a politician whom they can easily relate with," said Jared Mongare, a constituent.
Sources within ODM revealed that the party intends to assign at least two national officials to accompany Ochoi on his daily campaigns starting next week until the last day of the campaigns.
"Several ODM MPs and party officials will pitch tent in South Mugirango to campaign for Ochoi. Many feel all the Kisii ODM MPs should be left out of the campaign given their unpopularity in the constituency," a party official told Tuesday Politics.
Cabinet Minster Chris Obure, who should have been entrusted to co-ordinate the by-election, is seen by many as too soft and largely out of base to handle Magara's brand of politics.
Obure has lost a lot of political influence in Gusiiland given his soft approach to issues compared to Magara. He will be disadvantaged given he failed to ensure the former Gucha District was curved out as a county. In South Mugirango, he is not popular given also that he was appointed to the cabinet at the expense of Magara, said another Kisii politician.
Efforts to get Obure's comments on claims he has kept off South Mugirango were fruitless, as he was not answering our calls.
Itching for an opportunity to campaign in South Mugirango is Assistant Minister Richard Onyonka. Mr Onyonka has found himself in an awkward situation given his sour relationship with the Magara family.
He clashed with Magara's late brother, Titus, outside Parliament Buildings last year leading to him being sued by the late Titus.
However, the family has since announced that the money issue that was the source of their differences was sorted out before Titus passed away recently.
He still might not be able to venture into South Mugirango given the tough political parties "rules, which bars politicians who are members of other parties from going out to champion the interests of other parties.
Local connections
Coincidently, Onyonka's party PDP is the very party that Magara defected to. However, sources within ODM hinted at a possibility of using Onyonka to reach some key leaders from all the 14 locations within South Mugirango and the youth given his local connections.
With campaigns expected to reach all time high in the next three weeks, registered voters in South Mugiramgo will be hosting several leaders, but a final verdict will depend on their votes.
Candidates battling against Magara besides Ochoi include Manson Oyongo (Ford-P), Ezekiel Okengo (Narc-K), Abaga Sagero (NVP), Rashid Miyonga (PPK), Ezekiel Okemwa (Kenda), Joash Ombati Kengere (LPK), Masta Bw'Ondara (KSC), Robert Mbaka (Safina) and John Ondora (Kanu).
Kaddu's Ombasa Apepo failed to turn up and was, therefore, not cleared.
Source: The Standard | Online Edition
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